An Exploration of Trends in Crime Rates Across Los Angeles (2020-2024)

Author

Hanin Almodaweb

Introduction

Los Angeles (LA), a sprawling metropolis known for its diversity and global cultural influence, has a complex history of crime that has evolved alongside the city’s rapid growth. From the early 20th century, when organized crime syndicates and Prohibition-era bootlegging plagued its streets, to the racially charged tensions and gang violence that emerged in the post-World War II period, LA’s criminal landscape has mirrored the social, economic, and demographic changes of the city.

At the center of this history is the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD), which has faced its own challenges. The LAPD has a complex history shaped by corruption scandals, strained community relations, and efforts at reform. From the 1950s through the 1990s, LAPD leadership emphasized professional policing but often operated in isolation from democratic regulation and community relationships, particularly in marginalized areas like South LA. High-profile incidents such as the Rodney King beating in 1991 and the Rampart corruption scandal in the late 1990s exposed systemic issues within the department, prompting significant reforms aimed at fostering community policing and improving transparency by allowing the public to access real-time information. Apps such as Citizen and platforms like the USC Department of Public Safety’s Crime Alerts are key tools in this shift and have prompted this analysis.

In light of this backdrop, this analysis uses the LAPD’s Crime Data from 2020 to the present to explore crime incidence and distribution across LA. The dataset provides a comprehensive view of reported crimes, offering insights into trends by geographic areas, crime types, and victim demographics. Additionally, neighborhood population estimates from the Los Angeles Almanac are used for contextual analysis. These estimates, while based on U.S. Census data, are not official since the Census does not account for city-defined neighborhood boundaries. Instead, the Almanac approximates populations using a widely accepted neighborhood boundary map, providing a useful but unofficial framework for understanding crime’s impact on different communities. Hence, this analysis aims to shed light on how crime is evolving in the city and to better understand the distribution and impact of crime in different communities.

Primary Questions of Interest

How have crime rates changed across different geographic areas in Los Angeles (LA) from 2020 to 2024, and what trends can be observed in terms of the age, sex, and descent of victims?

Methods

Dataset Background

The main source of data used for this analysis was obtained from the Los Angeles Open Data Portal, specifically the “Crime Data from 2020 to Present” dataset. This dataset is maintained by the LAPD and provides comprehensive records of crime incidents reported in the city since 2020. Accessing the data involved navigating to the Public Safety section of the Los Angeles City Data Catalog where the dataset is publicly available for download. The data was exported as a CSV file, which was subsequently imported into R for further analysis and exploration. This dataset was chosen for its breadth of information, allowing for detailed analysis of crime incidence and distribution in LA, which is pertinent to understanding public safety in the area.

In this dataset, 986,500 observations (rows) of 28 variables (columns) capture details about crime incidents in the LA area. Each row represents an individual crime incident, and the variables include details such as the crime type, area name, and geographic coordinates, as well as key victim details such as age, sex, and descent. The dataset also includes timestamps and codes related to the modus operandi, which enable an in-depth analysis of crime patterns, regional concentrations, and demographic trends in the 2020-2024 timeframe under study.

Additionally, population estimates for Los Angeles neighborhoods from the Los Angeles Almanac were integrated into the analysis. These estimates provide total population counts for each neighborhood, facilitating the exploration of crime trends relative to population distributions. While derived from U.S. Census data, the estimates are approximations and not official census counts, as neighborhood boundaries are not formally defined. This combined data enables a deeper understanding of crime distribution.

Data Cleaning and Wrangling

To clean and prepare the crime dataset for analysis, several steps were taken to ensure the data was clear, interpretable, and ready for data analysis. Upon loading the dataset, an initial exploration was performed, which involved checking the dataset’s dimensions, inspecting the names and types of variables, and checking for any missing cases among the variables of interest. Next, I specified the variables of interest for further analysis, including DATE.OCC (date crime occurred), TIME.OCC (time crime occured), AREA (area code), AREA.NAME (area name), Vict.Age (age of victim), Vict.Sex (sex of victim), and Vict.Descent (descent of victim). I conducted a missing value analysis for these variables to ensure data integrity, with results presented in a summary table indicating no missing values among specified variables.

Subsequent data wrangling involved converting the DATE.OCC variable to a date-time object and extracting the year, month, and day. I defined specific crime codes for violent and property crimes, creating categorical variables to classify crime types and categorized crimes with codes that were not specified in the dataset manual as “other” to account for all crimes reported. The Vict.Age variable was re-coded to indicate no victim involved when the age was zero, leading to the creation of a new variable that distinguished between cases with and without a victim. Additionally, I re-coded the descent and sex variables into clearer categories. To group areas into broader regions, I categorized the AREA.NAME variable into specific bureaus based on LAPD crime mapping.

As part of the data wrangling process, I established age categories to enable comparisons across distinct demographic groups. However, I recognize the potential drawbacks of converting a continuous variable (age) into a categorical one. Categorization can lead to information loss by grouping nuanced data into broader bins, reducing the granularity and variability that the original data offers. That said, age categorization may still be useful for certain types of analysis or visualization, particularly when exploring trends or patterns across predefined age groups to reflect meaningful groupings relevant to the study.

Throughout the cleaning process, I updated the list of variables of interest, removing any variables that were irrelevant or had excessive missing values. Additionally, partial data for 2024—reflecting reports only up to mid-October—was excluded to ensure consistency. Only data from complete months through September 2024 was retained for analysis. The final dataset included the following variables of interest: crime code, year, month, day, crime category, specific crime category, region, victim involvement, victim sex, victim descent, and victim age categories. I addressed implausible values by filtering out any entries where Victim_Age was less than 0 or greater than 99. I confirmed the categorization of crimes and other attributes, noting that the missing values primarily occurred for cases where the age was recorded as zero, indicating no victim was involved.

The population dataset was extracted from the Los Angeles Almanac website and cleaned to focus on relevant neighborhoods and population totals. Key steps included retaining only “Neighborhood” and “Total Population” columns, removing duplicates, filtering for key neighborhoods, and mapping them to corresponding LAPD areas. The cleaned dataset was then merged with the crime dataset using shared geographic identifiers to enable analysis of population-adjusted crime trends.

The final dataset contained 983,675 observations and 15 variables.

Data Exploration

To analyze crime trends in LA from 2020 to 2024, I summarized key variables using descriptive statistics compiled into tables for clear visualization. I addressed the primary research question by displaying the total crime count for each year from 2020 to 2024, including percent change year-over-year (Table 1). Next, I focused on the geographic distribution of crimes (Table 2). I computed the total crime count for each area, allowing me to identify regions with the highest and lowest crime counts By organizing this data by region, I could visualize how crime was concentrated in specific areas and track changes over time. Lastly, I examined victim demographics. I calculated counts given the nature of the outcome variable, observing patterns in victim age group (Table 3), descent (Table 4), and sex (Table 5) to see if certain demographic groups were disproportionately affected by crimes in LA between the years 2020 and 2024.

Table 1(a-e). Monthly Crime Rates and Percent Changes by Year (2020–2024)

Table 1a: Monthly Crime Rate Summary for 2020
Month Crime Count Percent Change (%)
January 18556 NA
February 17281 -6.87
March 16183 -6.35
April 15699 -2.99
May 17222 9.70
June 17051 -0.99
July 17150 0.58
August 16894 -1.49
September 15655 -7.33
October 16505 5.43
November 15587 -5.56
December 15972 2.47
Table 1b: Monthly Crime Rate Summary for 2021
Month Crime Count Percent Change (%)
January 16615 NA
February 15433 -7.11
March 16349 5.94
April 16079 -1.65
May 17013 5.81
June 17177 0.96
July 18682 8.76
August 18392 -1.55
September 18378 -0.08
October 19335 5.21
November 18357 -5.06
December 17953 -2.20
Table 1c: Monthly Crime Rate Summary for 2022
Month Crime Count Percent Change (%)
January 18547 NA
February 17745 -4.32
March 19735 11.21
April 19829 0.48
May 20462 3.19
June 20264 -0.97
July 19996 -1.32
August 20137 0.71
September 19332 -4.00
October 20325 5.14
November 18740 -7.80
December 20028 6.87
Table 1d: Monthly Crime Rate Summary for 2023
Month Crime Count Percent Change (%)
January 19948 NA
February 18482 -7.35
March 19199 3.88
April 18925 -1.43
May 18901 -0.13
June 18725 -0.93
July 19922 6.39
August 20065 0.72
September 19313 -3.75
October 20099 4.07
November 19060 -5.17
December 19524 2.43
Table 1e: Monthly Crime Rate Summary for 2024
Month Crime Count Percent Change (%)
January 18893 NA
February 17365 -8.09
March 16247 -6.44
April 12906 -20.56
May 9338 -27.65
June 8064 -13.64
July 8076 0.15
August 8132 0.69
September 7833 -3.68
Note: Data for 2024 is only complete up to September.

Table 1a summarizes monthly crime trends for 2020, showing notable fluctuations, including a sharp decline in crime counts from March (-6.35%) to April (-2.99%) followed by a rebound in May (+9.70%). Table 1b highlights trends for 2021, with steady increases peaking in July (+8.76%) and October (19,335 crimes), followed by slight declines toward the end of the year. Table 1c presents data for 2022, where March experienced the largest increase (+11.21%), peaking in May (20,462 crimes), before a marked drop in November (-7.80%). Table 1d outlines crime rates in 2023, characterized by relatively stable trends, with the highest count in July (19,922 crimes) and a gradual decline thereafter. Finally, Table 1e details 2024 trends, revealing significant reductions in crime counts from April (-20.56%) to May (-27.65%), stabilizing around 8,000 monthly crimes from June to September.

Table 2. Crime Summary by Region

Crime Summary by Region
Region Total Crimes Average Crimes per Month
Central Bureau 240080 4341.03
South Bureau 206596 3701.85
Valley Bureau 286724 5114.32
West Bureau 250275 4503.12
Note:
Note: Data for 2024 is only complete up to September.

Table 2 presents a regional crime summary, with the Valley Bureau recording the highest total crimes (286,724) and average crimes per month (5,114.32). The Central Bureau follows with 240,080 total crimes and an average of 4,341.03 crimes per month. The West Bureau reports 250,275 total crimes and 4,503.12 average crimes per month, while the South Bureau has the lowest totals, with 206,596 total crimes and 3,701.85 average crimes per month.

Table 3. Distribution of Crimes by Victim Age Group

Table 3: Distribution of Crimes by Victim Age Group
Age Group Crime Count Percent of Total (%)
Children (0-9) 4464 0.62
Preteens (10-19) 36731 5.08
Young Adults (20-29) 176438 24.38
Adults (30-39) 191421 26.45
Middle-Aged Adults (40-49) 127996 17.69
Older Adults (50-59) 96964 13.40
Seniors (60-69) 58539 8.09
Elderly (70-79) 23009 3.18
Very Elderly (80-89) 6590 0.91
Centenarians (90-99) 1600 0.22
Note:
Note: Data for 2024 is only complete up to September.

Table 3 shows the distribution of crime victims across different age groups. The largest proportion of victims falls within the young adult (20-29) and adult (30-39) age groups, with 176,438 and 191,421 crimes reported, respectively, accounting for 24.38% and 26.45% of the total.Older adults and seniors, aged 50-69, make up a significant portion, but the number of crimes decreases with age, particularly for those aged 80 and above.

Table 4. Distribution of Crimes by Victim Descent

Table 4: Distribution of Crimes by Victim Descent
Victim Descent Crime Count Percent of Total (%)
Hispanic/Latino/Mexican 287843 39.77
White 182811 25.26
Black 132751 18.34
Other 63668 8.80
Other Asian 20712 2.86
Unknown 16576 2.29
Korean 5670 0.78
Filipino 4554 0.63
Chinese 4292 0.59
Japanese 1493 0.21
Vietnamese 1113 0.15
American Indian/Alaskan Native 971 0.13
Asian Indian 533 0.07
Pacific Islander 276 0.04
Hawaiian 176 0.02
Cambodian 87 0.01
Guamanian 72 0.01
Laotian 72 0.01
Samoan 50 0.01
Unspecified 32 0.00
Note:
Note: Data for 2024 is only complete up to September.

Table 4 shows the distribution of crimes by victim descent, with the highest number of victims identifying as Hispanic/Latino/Mexican (39.77% of total crimes), followed by White victims at 25.26% and Black victims at 18.34%. Victim groups with the smallest crime counts include Korean (0.78%), Filipino (0.63%), and Chinese (0.59%), while ethnicities such as Cambodian, Guamanian, and Laotian each represent less than 0.1%.

Table 5. Distribution of Crimes by Victim Sex

Table 5: Distribution of Crimes by Victim Sex
Victim Sex Crime Count Percent of Total (%)
Male 364243 50.33
Female 349314 48.26
Other 10054 1.39
Unknown 141 0.02
Note:
Note: Data for 2024 is only complete up to September.

Table 5 presents the distribution of crimes by victim sex, showing that male victims account for the largest share at 50.33%, followed closely by female victims at 48.26%. The category “Other” represents 1.39% of the total, while the “Unknown” category makes up a minimal 0.02%.

Preliminary Results

Figure 1. Trend of Crime Count in LA Over Time (2020-2024).

Figure 1 illustrates monthly crime trends from 2020 to September 2024, highlighting both consistent patterns and significant anomalies. From 2020 to 2023, crime levels remained relatively stable, with predictable seasonal fluctuations throughout the year. However, 2024 stands out with a sharp and sustained decline in crime beginning in April and plateauing at significantly lower levels by June. This distinct deviation from prior years suggests the influence of an external factor or intervention that effectively reduced crime rates during 2024.

Figure 3. Monthly Crime Counts by Year and Crime Category (2020–2024)

Figure 3 illustrates the distribution of total crimes in Los Angeles across three categories—Other, Property Crime, and Violent Crime—from 2020 to September 2024. Property crimes consistently reported the highest numbers across all years, peaking in December 2023 at 9,696 incidents. Violent crimes showed moderate fluctuations, with notable increases in mid-2022, reaching a peak of 6,165 in May, before steadily declining to extremely low levels by mid-2024, such as only 188 in June. “Other” crimes remained relatively stable, with some seasonal variations, but also experienced a significant decline by mid-2024. A clear downward trend in overall crime rates is evident starting in 2024, with property and violent crimes sharply dropping, especially violent crime, which fell dramatically to less than 200 incidents per month in the second half of 2024. This suggests an improvement in crime control measures or societal changes during this period.

Figure 4. Crime Rates per 100,000 Population by Region and Crime Category.

Figure 4 shows the distribution of Property Crime, Violent Crime, and Other Crimes across four regions in Los Angeles per 100,000 population as normalized crime rates. The West Bureau stands out with the highest rate of Property Crime, exceeding 400,000, while its Violent Crime rate is also significant but slightly lower. In the South Bureau, Violent Crime is relatively high and nearly matches its Property Crime rate, emphasizing a concerning balance between these two categories. The Central Bureau displays a more even distribution among the three crime categories, with Property Crime being slightly more dominant. Meanwhile, the Valley Bureau reports the lowest overall crime rates, with Property Crime slightly exceeding Violent Crime and Other categories. Overall, the data underscores significant regional differences in crime patterns, with Property Crime being the most prevalent type across most regions.

Table 6. Crime Counts by Area in Valley Bureau (2020-2024).

Table 6: Crime Counts by Area in Valley Bureau (2020-2024)
Area Name Crime Count
N Hollywood 50036
Van Nuys 41931
West Valley 41351
Devonshire 40874
Topanga 40487
Mission 39466
Foothill 32579
Note:
Note: Data for 2024 is only complete up to September.

Given the highest total crime count is in the valley bureau, Table 6 presents area-specific crime counts within the bureau. This table shows that North Hollywood has the highest raw crime count (50,036), followed by Van Nuys (41,931) and West Valley (41,351). Other areas, such as Devonshire (40,874), Topanga (40,487), Mission (39,466), and Foothill (32,579), also contribute significantly to the overall crime in the region.

Table 7. Summary Table of Violent Crime Count Over the Years (2020-2024).

Table 7: Summary of Violent Crimes with Percent Change (2020-2024)
Specific Crime Category 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Percent Change (%)
Aggravated Assault 18562 20080 20175 20002 5543 -70.14
Homicide 356 402 392 330 93 -73.88
Rape 1588 1641 1618 1446 327 -79.41
Robbery 8019 8499 9118 8686 2701 -66.32
Simple Assault 34607 34355 37200 37578 10486 -69.70
Note:
Note: Percent change for 2024 only accounts for data until September.

Table 7 summarizes violent crimes from 2020 to 2024, showing a substantial decline across all categories, with data for 2024 reflecting figures through September. Aggravated Assault decreased by 70.14%, and Homicides saw the steepest drop of 73.88%. Similarly, Rape incidents declined by 79.41%, the largest percentage reduction among all categories. Robbery cases decreased by 66.32%, while Simple Assaults fell by 69.70%. These trends indicate a significant reduction in violent crime over the five-year period, with 2024 showing markedly lower numbers compared to prior years.

Table 8. Summary Table of Property Crime Count Over the Years (2020-2024).

Table 8: Summary of Property Crimes with Percent Change (2020-2024)
Specific Crime Category 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Percent Change (%)
Burglary 13755 13017 14986 15303 4634 -66.31
Motor Vehicle Theft 21341 24349 25455 25963 17839 -16.41
Other Theft 22711 23842 28068 33680 20278 -10.71
Personal Theft 1085 1115 2103 2275 1225 12.90
Theft from Vehicle 27662 29656 32386 30767 17862 -35.43
Note:
Note: Percent change for 2024 only accounts for data until September.

Table 8 shows a notable decline in several categories of property crime from 2020 to 2024, with 2024 data reflecting figures through September. Burglary experienced the most significant decline, dropping 66.31%, while Motor Vehicle Theft decreased by a modest 16.41%. Other Theft saw a smaller reduction of 10.71%, and Theft from Vehicle declined by 35.43%. Notably, Personal Theft increased by 12.90%, marking the only category to show growth during this period. Overall, while most property crime categories have decreased, the trends suggest differing rates of reduction across specific types of crime.

Conclusion

In Conclusion, from 2020 to 2024, Los Angeles saw notable shifts in crime patterns across various categories and regions, with key insights emerging from the data. Between 2020 and 2023, crime rates followed relatively stable seasonal trends, with peaks often occurring mid-year and gradual declines toward year-end. However, 2024 diverged significantly, with crime rates dropping sharply in April and stabilizing at much lower levels by mid-year, marking a substantial and unusual decline compared to previous years (Tables 1a–1e, Figure 1). This change suggests the influence of external factors such as policy interventions or broader societal shifts. The 2020 data also reflects the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which likely contributed to reduced crime rates during that period.

Crime trends varied across regions, with the Valley Bureau recording the highest total crimes (286,724) but maintaining relatively stable rates over time, while the Central Bureau consistently showed the highest crime rates per capita. The West Bureau experienced the highest property crime rates, and the South Bureau faced a concerning balance between property and violent crimes, emphasizing regional disparities in crime dynamics (Table 2, Figure 2). Crime distribution by category revealed property crimes as the most prevalent type across all years, while violent crimes saw notable fluctuations before their dramatic decline in 2024. “Other” crimes remained stable, with only minor seasonal variations (Figures 3 and 4).

The analysis of victim demographics revealed that young adults aged 20–39 were disproportionately affected, representing over 50% of total crime victims. Older adults and seniors faced lower victimization rates, with numbers decreasing significantly for those aged 80 and above (Table 3). In terms of descent, Hispanic/Latino/Mexican individuals accounted for the largest share of victims (39.77%), followed by White (25.26%) and Black (18.34%) victims, while smaller ethnic groups experienced notably fewer incidents (Table 4). The data also showed a near-equal distribution of victimization by sex, with males slightly more affected (50.33%) than females (48.26%), while the “Other” category accounted for 1.39% of victims (Table 5).

Crime categories showed substantial reductions over the five-year period, particularly for violent crimes, where all major categories—aggravated assault, homicide, rape, robbery, and simple assault—declined by 66–80% (Table 7). Among property crimes, burglary saw the largest reduction (-66.31%), while motor vehicle theft and theft from vehicles also dropped notably. However, personal theft increased slightly by 12.9%, standing out as the only category to show growth during this period (Table 8). Victim-involved crimes remained significantly higher than victimless crimes through 2023 but exhibited a sharp decline in 2024, while victimless crimes remained stable, averaging around 4,000 incidents per month across all years (Figure 5).

Overall, the data underscores significant progress in reducing crime in Los Angeles, particularly in 2024, when rates fell to historically low levels compared to simiar months between 2020 and 2023. However, the incomplete data for 2024 requires cautious interpretation, as the year is not yet over, and the full context of contributing factors remains unclear. Regional disparities and differences in crime types persist, with some areas and demographics facing disproportionate impacts. These findings emphasize the need for sustained and targeted interventions to address ongoing challenges and ensure equitable reductions in crime across all regions and populations.

The observed trends in crime rates across Los Angeles from 2020 to 2024 can be attributed to various interrelated factors. Economic conditions play a significant role; the peak in crime during 2022 likely correlated with financial instability resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, while the subsequent decline in 2024 may reflect economic recovery and improved employment opportunities. Additionally, community policing initiatives and enhanced law enforcement strategies aimed at fostering trust between police and residents may have effectively deterred criminal activity. The availability of social services, such as youth engagement programs and mental health support, can also mitigate factors contributing to crime, particularly in vulnerable populations. Furthermore, demographic shifts, particularly among Hispanic/Latino/Mexican communities, highlight the importance of addressing specific social dynamics that impact crime victimization. Overall, these complex factors underscore the necessity of targeted, data-driven approaches to crime prevention that address both the symptoms and root causes of crime in Los Angeles.

Future Consderations

As crime trends in Los Angeles continue to evolve, several pertinent questions arise that warrant further exploration. One critical area is the impact of socioeconomic status on crime victimization and perpetration, particularly among different demographic groups. Investigating how factors such as income level, education, and employment status intersect with age, sex, and descent could yield valuable insights into the underlying causes of crime. Additionally, it would be worthwhile to examine the effectiveness of specific community policing strategies across diverse neighborhoods and how these initiatives influence crime rates and community trust in law enforcement.

References

  • City of Los Angeles Neighborhoods Population & Race. Population and Race of Neighborhoods of the City of Los Angeles, California, www.laalmanac.com/population/po24la.php#google_vignette.
  • Crime mapping and Compstat. LAPD Online. (August 29, 2024). https://www.lapdonline.org/office-of-the-chief-of-police/office-of-special-operations/detective-bureau/crime-mapping-and-compstat/
  • Fagan, Jeffrey and MacDonald, John, Policing, Crime and Legitimacy in New York and Los Angeles: The Social and Political Contexts of Two Historic Crime Declines (August 21, 2012). Columbia Public Law Research Paper No. 12-315, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2133487 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2133487
  • Los Angeles Open Data Portal. (February 10, 2020). Crime Data from 2020 to Present. Los Angeles. https://data.lacity.org/Public-Safety/Crime-Data-from-2020-to-Present/2nrs-mtv8/about_data